Artificial Intelligence Probably Won’t Destroy Us, But Natural Stupidity Might
We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Us
Doomscrolling is popular these days, and there is no shortage of plausible doom material to scroll through. (Check out some recent examples from Charles Haines, Alan Urban and umair haque below).
The increasing frequency and severity of climate disasters. Nuclear war erupting in Ukraine or on the Korean peninsula.
The rise of authoritarian nationalism (hell, Fascism) from Orban’s Hungary to the US Republican Party. No wonder everyone is so anxious these days.
The Rise of MAGAuthoritarianism
Why America’s Crossing the Line into the Next Level of Fascism
eand.co
And, most recently, people fear the “Rise of the Machines”, of dangerous AI and especially the sudden emergence of powerful Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
In my day job I architect AI solutions and advise organizations on ethical and effective data and AI strategies. I have been fortunate to learn from such AI pioneers as Geoff Hinton and Yann LeCun. AI certainly poses risks, from massive job displacement and autonomous weapons systems to rogue AGI’s who decide they don’t need us around.
Geoff recently quit his lucrative Google post in order to be free to raise his voice about the risks.
But for me the biggest and most tragic threat to our civilization isn’t any of the technologies per se — it’s the people who wield them. It’s us. Specifically, it’s the toxic interaction of:
- Disinformation
- Militant ignorance
- Tribalism and polarization.
IF we could pull together as a nation / species / world, I feel like we could legitimately solve or at least mitigate any of our other challenges — climate change, agricultural collapse, nuclear weapons, AI, economic disparity, viral pandemics….Even an alien invasion, come to that.
The Era of the Raging Idiot
But we probably can’t, or won’t. Because there’ll always be 30 percent of us screaming “FAKE NEWS!”, “Trudeau is a tyrant!”, “Fuck Joe Biden!”, “Do your own research!”, “Science is Woke! Trust the Bible!”, and attacking or disrupting our capital cities while the rest of us try to actually solve the damn problem.
“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
— Isaac Asimov
In contrast, I have been reading a lot in recent years about the Allies during World War II. Consider Britain: It is amazing how the Brits pulled together to resist the Nazi onslaught — at Dunkirk, through the London Blitz, on to D-Day and beyond.
How would we fare today under nightly carpet bombing of London, or Ottawa, Toronto, Washington, NYC? Would we stand up to today’s Hitler, or cave in when we lost our WiFi and couldn’t get a decent latte? Would Fox News and Rebel Media show “balance” by taking the side of today’s Hitler against our democratically elected leaders? Would mobs of raging morons attack public health officials who suggested inoculation against Anthrax bombs or radiation poisoning?
THIS is what makes me most discouraged.
The argument for regulating, even slowing down AI research and development is that we need to take time to ensure that our AIs align with our human values. But WHICH human values? Tolerance for diversity? Non-aggression towards neighbours? Respect for democratic norms? We cannot even minimally agree on those anymore, apparently.
Of course, if we are indeed at risk from evil AGIs — or from evil people deploying AGIs — their most fruitful attack vector is to weaponize human ignorance and division, just as Putin, Trump and Tucker Carlson do today. As Harari, Harris and Raskin put it in a recent New York Times Op-Ed:
Language is the operating system of human culture. From language emerges myth and law, gods and money, art and science, friendships and nations and computer code. A.I.’s new mastery of language means it can now hack and manipulate the operating system of civilization. By gaining mastery of language, A.I. is seizing the master key to civilization, from bank vaults to holy sepulchers.
Sociopathic authoritarian demagogues, idiotic bigoted populism, and social media mob incitement might well do us in using one destructive technology or another. As has been demonstrated many times throughout history, humans are quite capable of genocidal violence with no technology required beyond clubs, machetes and AK-47s.
“The real problem of humanity is the following: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology.”
— E.O. Wilson
I don’t know what the solution is. I wonder whether something like social media — or a similar stage in the evolution of a sentient species wherein the amplification of the chaotic thoughts of all individuals overrides social cohesion and order — serves as a “Great Filter” that erases many such species from the cosmos.
We can (and should) regulate AI; and with broadcasting and social media, at least curb the worst excesses, such as libel/slander and direct incitement of violence. And environmental pollution, and energy production and use. But will any of that matter if human beings are unwilling or unable to regulate themselves?
Hey, I’m open to optimistic persuasion — show me that I’m wrong. Please! Looking forward to your comments. Convince me that reason, empathy, stoicism, altruism and basic grownup self-control aren’t lost, and might help our species pass through this perilously disruptive era intact!
